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Cellnex Curve Post-CMD And Post-Upgrade

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  • Cellnex (NR/BBB-[S]/BBB-[S]) reported solid results last week; Rev/EBITDA in-line, FCF beat expectation at upper end of guidance which combined with the CMD announcements speak to continuity in the credit narrative with a pathway now outlined to reach a lowered leverage target of 5-6x.
  • Management commentary at the CMD was reassuring with guidance of little to no M&A activity plans; the primary and secondary focuses being the IG upgrade and the subsequent return of capital to shareholders as outlined in the CMD press release.
  • The S&P upgrade was earlier than expected, coming during the CMD as opposed to the management target of this year. Spreads rallied by up to ~11bps into the close though moves are more muted today at up to ~2bps of tightening.
  • Cellnex already trades quite close to both a BBB TMT curve (and away from a BB one) and close to peer American Tower (Baa3[S]/BBB-[S]) as per the below chart so a significant degree of optimism was already likely priced.
  • We’ve also seen surveys of investor predictions going into the CMD and note that the major points are broadly in line with expectations.

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