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(Z1) Off Lows, But Remains Weak


Still Vulnerable


Bullish Price Sequence

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EM rates trading mostly weaker across the space going into the weekend and Fed week. Turkey USD bonds and SAGBs most offered thus far with Russia treading water slightly in negative territory. US Treasury yields adding the pressure to continue towards a third successive day of upside price action.

  • SA: SAGBs continue to weaken in what has been a rough week, with the 15y most offered in today's session at +4.6bp. The curve trades higher across the breadth with a bear steepening bias. 30Y notably approaching a key pivot point at 10.50. bearish momentum in ZAR has stalled out somewhat around the 50dma, but will be monitored closely going into SARB/Fed week as a key risk proxy trade.
  • TURKEY: Both TurkGBs and USD bonds trading in the same direction and weakening today with the latter underperforming as CBRT/Fed week approaches. Both curves seeing selling pressure concentrated in the belly (5-7Y tenors), trading roughly +6-9bp higher on the day. TRY also showing vulnerability to rising UST yields and sustained upside momentum as concerns build over premature easing and technical break of 8.50.
  • RUSSIA: OFZs trade weaker across the curve, but remain somewhat more resilient than peers SA & Turkey. The OFZ curve stands +1-2bp higher over all tenors, but retains its bear steepening bias w/w. RUB still showing signs of resilience, moving back into the green vs the $ having found resistance at 72.6637.