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MNI: FED'S POWELL STILL SEES POSSIBLE PATH TO SOFT LANDING

MNI: POWELL: FED PREPARED TO TIGHTEN FURTHER IF APPROPRIATE

FED'S GOOLSBEE: 'YOU CAN'T BACK OUT NOW' ON INFLATION FIGHT

MNI: BAKER HUGHES US RIG COUNT 625; OIL RIGS 505; GAS RIGS 116

EZ/UK T-Bill Calendar: Germany, Netherlands, France Due Monday

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: BOE Long APF Operation on Monday

MNI BRIEF: Lawmakers Signal Tough Hearing For BOC's Macklem

MNI BRIEF:Macklem-Fiscal Policy Turning Unhelpful On CPI Fight

MNI BRIEF: Stabilizing Prices Helps BOC Turn Neutral-Freeland

Chair Powell Says Making Progress On Inflation

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  • Q: With no hike today, how long will you be OK with 3+% inflation?
    • A: Progress will probably come in lumps and be bumpy but we're making progress. The best thing I could point to is the September SEP where the expectation was that by the end of 2024 inflation would be well into the 2s, and 2025 further into the 2s. It takes time.
    • For the first year or so of our tightening cycle the risks were all on not doing enough; they're more two-sided now.
  • Q: How likely is it that the Fed will extend the Bank Term Funding Program?
    • A: Good question, we haven't really been thinking about that yet. It's a decision we will be making in 1st quarter 2024.
  • Q: If UofM inflation expectations remain high, how big of an input will that be in your December thinking?
    • I think that got blown out of proportion a bit - it was a prelim estimate revised away. It's clear that inflation expectations are in a good place.
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  • Q: With no hike today, how long will you be OK with 3+% inflation?
    • A: Progress will probably come in lumps and be bumpy but we're making progress. The best thing I could point to is the September SEP where the expectation was that by the end of 2024 inflation would be well into the 2s, and 2025 further into the 2s. It takes time.
    • For the first year or so of our tightening cycle the risks were all on not doing enough; they're more two-sided now.
  • Q: How likely is it that the Fed will extend the Bank Term Funding Program?
    • A: Good question, we haven't really been thinking about that yet. It's a decision we will be making in 1st quarter 2024.
  • Q: If UofM inflation expectations remain high, how big of an input will that be in your December thinking?
    • I think that got blown out of proportion a bit - it was a prelim estimate revised away. It's clear that inflation expectations are in a good place.