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Cheaper After Stronger Than Expected Domestic Data

AUSSIE BONDS

ACGBs (YM -4.0 & XM -2.5) are 1-3bps cheaper after today’s stronger-than-expected domestic data drop.

  • Retail sales rose 0.6% m/m (estimate +0.3%) in May versus +0.1% in April. This ends a 5-month streak of a touch softer/weaker than expected releases.
  • Building approvals rose 5.5% m/m (estimate +1.6%) in May versus a revised +1.9% in April. Private-sector home approvals rose 2.1% m/m versus revised -0.3% in April.
  • Cash ACGBs are 3bp cheaper on the day after being 1bp richer earlier in the session. The AU-US 10-year yield differential is at +1bp versus -3bps earlier.
  • Swap rates are 3-4bps higher on the day.
  • The bills strip has shifted cheaper after the data to be -4 to -5.
  • RBA Dated OIS is firmer after the data. Pricing now sits 6-29bps firmer across meetings than pre-CPI levels. The market gives a 25bp hike in August a 44% chance. Terminal rate expectations are also dramatically firmer at 4.50% versus 4.37% before the CPI data.
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