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Cheaper But Off Worst Levels, RBA Minutes For June Tomorrow

AUSSIE BONDS

ACGBs (YM -5.0 & XM -7.5) are cheaper but well above session cheaps.

  • Outside of the previously outlined MI Monthly Inflation Gauge and ANZ Job Ads, there hasn't been much in the way of domestic drivers to flag.
  • With the local calendar relatively light, the move away from morning cheaps has been assisted by a bull-steepening in US tsys in today’s Asia-Pac session. Cash benchmarks are currently 1-3bps richer after being as much as 2bps cheaper in early dealings.
  • Cash ACGBs are 4-6bps cheaper, with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at -1bp.
  • Swap rates are higher, with a steepening bias.
  • The bills strip has bear-steepened, with pricing flat to -4.
  • Although softer than Thursday’s levels, RBA Dated OIS remains 6-23bps firmer than pre-CPI levels. The market gives a 25bp hike in August a 43% chance versus 55% last Thursday. Terminal rate expectations also remain dramatically firmer at 4.48% versus 4.37% before the CPI data. Thursday’s high was 4.53%.
  • Tomorrow, the local calendar will see the RBA Minutes of the June Policy Meeting.
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