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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Get the latest on Central Bank Policy and FX & FI Markets to help inform both your strategic and tactical decision-making.
Free AccessMNI US CPI Preview: Setting The Tone For 2025
MNI ASIA MARKETS OPEN: NY Fed Inflation Expectations Gaining
MNI ASIA MARKETS ANALYSIS: Tsy Ylds Drift Higher Ahead CPI/PPI
Cheaper, Narrow Ranges Ahead Of FOMC Decision
ACGBs (YM -7.0 & XM -6.0) are weaker after dealing in a relatively narrow range in the Sydney session. The local calendar has been light today, with Westpac leading index (-0.4% m/m) as the only release. Accordingly, local participants have likely been on headlines and US tsys watch ahead of the FOMC decision later today.
- Traders expect the Fed to keep rates on hold with a tightening bias. The median of analysts’ expectations for the Fed’s September Dot Plot rates suggests that the central expectation is for no changes from June’s projections: 5.6% for 2023, 4.6% for 2024, 3.4% for 2025, with the new entry for 2026 at 2.6%, and the Longer-Run rate at 2.5%.
- Narrow ranges have persisted in US tsy dealing in the Asia-Pac session, with no meaningful macro newsflow crossing. Cash US tsys sit little changed across the major benchmarks.
- Cash ACGBs are 5-6bps cheaper, with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at -14bps.
- Swap rates are 5bps higher, with EFPs little changed.
- Bills strip pricing is -6 to -7 for contracts beyond Dec-23.
- RBA-dated OIS pricing is 3-7bps firmer across meetings beyond Dec’23.
- Tomorrow the local calendar is empty, ahead of Judo Bank PMIs on Friday.
To read the full story
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.