MNI China Daily Summary: Tuesday, December 10

MNI BRIEF: China Nov Exports Slows, Imports Slide

MNI BRIEF: China Crude Oil Imports Accelerate In November

MNI BRIEF: Brazil Annual Inflation Rises To 4.87% In November

CHINA NOV EXPORTS +6.7% Y/Y VS MEDIAN +8.9% Y/Y: CUSTOMS

MNI: CHINA YTD EXPORTS +6.7% Y/Y IN YUAN TERM: CUSTOMS

US NFIB NOV SMALL BUSINESS INDEX 101.7

MNI: GERMAN NOV CPI +2.2 % Y/Y

MNI: NORWAY NOV CORE CPI +0.1% M/M, +3% Y/Y

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

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Cheaper & Near Worst Levels After Today’s Data Drop

AUSSIE BONDS

ACGBs (YM -3.0 & XM -3.0) are holding 2-3bps cheaper since today’s stronger-than-expected domestic data drop.

  • May retail sales were stronger-than-expected rising 0.6% m/m after +0.1% m/m to be up 1.7% y/y from 1.2%. The ABS notes that spending was boosted by early mid-year sales. The RBA sees consumption as an area of heightened uncertainty.
  • The number of building approvals appears to have begun to recover but the trend remains weak. They rose a stronger-than-expected 5.5% m/m in May with the improvement fairly broad-based across states and components. Three-month momentum turned positive for the first time since December last year.
  • Cash ACGBs are 3bp cheaper on the day. The AU-US 10-year yield differential is at +1bp versus -3bps earlier.
  • Swap rates are 3bps higher on the day.
  • The bills strip has shifted cheaper after the data to be -2 to -4.
  • RBA Dated OIS is firmer after the data. Pricing now sits 6-29bps firmer across meetings than pre-CPI levels. The market gives a 25bp hike in August a 42% chance. Terminal rate expectations are also dramatically firmer at 4.50% versus 4.37% before the CPI data.
  • Tomorrow, the local calendar will see Trade Balance data.
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