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Cheaper, Subdued Data-Light Session, CPI Monthly Tomorrow

AUSSIE BONDS

ACGBs (YM -4.0 & XM -3.5) are weaker and near session cheaps on another data-light Sydney session.

  • The highlight for the local calendar this week comes tomorrow in the form of July CPI Monthly data. July CPI data is expected to ease to 3.4% y/y from 3.8% but won’t include an update of most services components. This outcome requires the CPI to fall on the month. The moderation is expected to be driven by lower food inflation and an outright fall in petrol prices, as well as government cost-of-living measures.
  • Cash US tsys are ~1bp richer in today’s Asia-Pac session after yesterday’s modest cheapening.
  • Cash ACGBs are 2-3bps cheaper, with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at +6bps.
  • Swap rates are 1-2bps higher.
  • The bills strip is slightly cheaper, with pricing -1 to -2.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is slightly firmer across meetings. A cumulative 26bps of easing is priced by year-end.
  • The AOFM sold A$100mn of inflation-linked Nov-32 bond, with a cover ratio of 3.74x.
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