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'Checking Rates' Sends JPY to Top of the G10 Pile

FOREX
  • The JPY outperforms all others in G10 ahead of the NY crossover, putting USD/JPY either side of the Y143 handle as the BoJ ratcheted higher the tone of their verbal FX intervention. The Bank were said to be 'checking rates' in the market, a tacit warning that levels of tolerance are being approached and that the next step will be the formal selling of foreign currencies.
  • USD/JPY was marked down to around Y143.60 on the initial reports, having traded just shy of the Y145.00 handle post-CPI. This suggests the real line in the sand for the Japanese authorities is becoming clearer, which should raise focus on Y145. On the downside, initial firm support has been defined at 141.51, the Sep 9 low. A strong support also lies at the 20-day EMA, at 140.21. A break of this 141.51-140.21 zone is required to highlight a short-term top.
  • UK inflation data came in mixed, with the downtick in headline CPI sure to see the MPC breathe a small sigh of relief. Nonetheless, higher than expected core CPI remains a concern. GBP was largely unresponsive to the release, with EUR/GBP remaining wholly inside the week's range so far.
  • JPY is the strongest currency in G10, while AUD, NZD are among the poorest performers.
  • US PPI will be carefully watched later today to confirm the inflation dynamics of the US, with speeches from ECB's Lane and Villeroy also on the docket.

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