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Chile inflation rises to highest level since November 2014

CHILE
  • Chile CPI inflation continues to surprise positively, rising to 5.3% YoY in September, its highest level since November 2014.
  • We have seen that the central bank has embarked into a tightening cycle since July and took a hawkish route at its August meeting by raising aggressively by 75bps (vs. 50bps) to 1.50%.
  • As inflation continues to surprise positively in the EM world, we have seen that a rising number of central banks have decided to take action by hiking more aggressively in the past two months.
  • Next policy meeting is taking place on October 13, with market expecting the CBC to raise by another 75bps to 2.25%, which would bring the benchmark rate 'closer' to pre-Covid levels (i.e. 2.5%/3%).
  • The CLP has remained weak against major crosses, with USDCLP recently trading at its highest level since July 2020. Momentum on USDCLP turned bullish in May, which corresponds to the start of the 'broad USD strength'.
  • In addition, the gradual decline in copper prices mainly driven by the deceleration in Chinese economic activity could also continue to weigh on CLP in the near term.
  • Political uncertainty will also continue to impact Chilean risky assets in the coming weeks ahead of Presidential, parliamentary and regional elections on November 21.
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