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CHILE: Itaú Expecting BCCh Pause After September

CHILE
  • According to Itaú, economic activity in May points to a certain loss of growth momentum after a particularly strong start to the year. Holding activity constant at May levels would lead to a growth of 1.4% this year, down from the 2.4% using end-February levels.
  • Monthly activity data in Chile has been unusually noisy recently, maybe due to the swings in working days and seasonal factors. The intense rainfalls of June are likely to boost electricity output (measured in value added terms) in the month, yet the related suspension of classes in certain regions should weigh on activity.
  • Itaú expect the economy to grow 2.8% this year, but with a downward bias. In this context, they expect Chile’s central bank to continue easing on July 31, by 25bps to 5.5% and then pause when reaching 5.25% in September.
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