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CHILE: Santander Still Expecting 25BP BCCh Cut in July

CHILE
  • Santander believe that June inflation data should be interpreted with caution, since the figures are influenced by specific factors (primarily “Cyber ​​Day” offers).  
  • However, going forward, as Santander anticipated, annual inflation will continue to rise due to both transitory effects (increases in international energy prices and higher exchange rates) and higher electricity prices. Thus, Santander maintain their estimate of 4.3% inflation for the year. 
  • On the other hand, the fact that the underlying measure remains limited - CPI without volatiles for the second quarter is slightly lower than projected in the last IPoM - and despite possible indirect effects of the rise in electricity rates, there is still room for the BCCh to make an additional 25bp rate cut at the July 31 meeting.
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