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CHINA DATA: Commodity Import Volumes Mixed, But Most Trends Softer/Weak

CHINA DATA

China imports for August were just positive at 0.5%y/y, against a 2.5% forecast and 7.2% prior. The trend for imports has barely been positive in the past 12 months, a sign of weak domestic demand conditions.

  • In terms of commodity import volumes, trends were mixed in m/m terms. Crude jumped noticeably from July levels, but remains negative in y/y terms. The trend has also been soft, see the second chart below. Coal imports were down m/m, but have had a better trend in recent months (see the first chart).
  • Iron ore imports were down m/m, but are still elevated in level terms. Arguably downside risks are prevalent for this commodity given elevated iron ore inventories onshore and poor property dynamics. Still, our policy team notes steel demand may pick up in the coming months.
  • Copper imports rose, as did LNG imports, although the trend around both commodities has been more weaker in recent months. 

China import volumes y/y% 3-mth moving average

 
Source: MNI - Market News/Refinitiv

 

 

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