China Weekly Oil Summary: Potential Downside Risk from Oil Purchases

There could be some downside risk in near-term China oil purchases according to FGE.

• Its estimates show that China has been building inventories since Dec’23, with a potential for stock builds to gather pace in Apr/May when domestic refineries undergo hefty maintenance.
• China could reduce oil buying if crude prices rise above $90/bbl, Hartree Partners' senior advisor Ed Morse said to Bloomberg.
• China’s imports of Russian crude from Baltic, Black Sea and Arctic regions rebounded to above 400kbd in March with vessels associated with the trade experiencing minimal Red Sea disruption.
• China’s seaborne crude imports came in above 10mn bpd in March – the first time since October of last year according to Vortexa.
• China's Caixin manufacturing PMI registered 51.1 in March, up 0.2 points from February, staying in the expansionary zone above the breakeven 50 mark for a fifth month and hitting the highest level since March 2023.
• US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen today highlighted the importance of the US-China economic relationship but criticised “unfair” and “coercive” business practices and warned of the Chinese industrial overcapacity in a speech at an American Chamber of Commerce event in Guangzhou.