Chinese Q1 GDP will no doubt grab the.........>

CHINA: Chinese Q1 GDP will no doubt grab the headlines, but there will likely be

questions re: data validity, at least in the West. The BBG median exp. for the

Q1 GDP Y/Y read is -6.0%, with a range low of -16.0% & a range high of +3.6%.

The Li Keqiang index (which weights electricity production, railway freight &

outstanding bank loans) fell out of bed in Jan, hitting the lowest level on

record, before edging slightly higher in Feb. March's reading isn't on BBG yet.

- The monthly activity data for March may fly a little more under the radar, but

could be worth watching, particularly on the consumer side i.e. retail sales, as

participants & economists try & assess the animal spirits of the Chinese

consumer in the wake of lockdown restrictions being eased. We know that various

local governments have pointed to +ve results after providing coupons for the

public to spend, which seem to have been multiplied by outright consumer

spending as people were drawn into shops in various regions. Luxury good

provider LVMH has pointed to a strong surge in Chinese store activity during the

second half of March/early April, with government officials pointing to similar

findings elsewhere.