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CIBC Look For 'Meagre' 0.1% M/M Core CPI

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
  • CIBC see core CPI at a “meagre” 0.1% M/M in August (consensus 0.2) as the easing in supply chains will weigh further on core goods prices.
  • Service prices to remain firm given solid demand but will be around the pace seen in recent months.
  • A third straight month of soft inflation readings, combined with the gradually weakening trend in the labour market will be enough for the Fed to throw in the towel on its September meeting and signal data dependence the rest of the year.
  • Core CPI should meaningfully push down to 4.2% Y/Y although headline CPI will tick up to 3.5% Y/Y on higher gasoline prices.
  • Given the Fed is sitting in a data dependent position and will continue to weigh risk management considerations heavily, a downside surprise should be slightly bullish for fixed income markets.
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