CIBC note that "the CAD has come......>

DOLLAR-CANADA: CIBC note that "the CAD has come under attack in recent weeks

from both the Trump admin & falling oil prices. It hasn't helped that the econ

data flow has also looked patchier of late. Adding to the CAD's woes will be the

Fed who look set to raise rates this year more aggressively than prev.

envisaged. As a result, while CAD has depreciated in line with our f'casts, the

slightly stiffer headwinds now have us calling for USDCAD to hit C$1.34 later in

'18, slightly weaker than our last projection. Steel & aluminum tariffs proved

that the Trump admin wasn't going to let Canada off the hook for perceived

unfair trade practices. The recent increase in verbal jabs show that Canada is

now a focus of the admin's ire regarding trade rather than just a bystander. The

potential for US auto tariffs present a risk to the CAD & and would see an even

weaker profile for CAD if they became a reality. However, even under the base

case scenario that those tariffs aren't imposed, uncertainty surrounding trade

will still likely show up as a drag on biz investment. Overall, we continue to

expect that CAD will weaken somewhat in the months ahead & then average roughly

C$1.30 over the next 2 years to keep the econ competitive on the global stage."