Citi: +850K Aug Jobs Raise Odds Of Sep Taper Announcement

Citi is near the upper end of August nonfarm payroll growth expectations, at +850K (with unemployment falling to 5.1%), citing activity "normalizing" (e.g. the return of in-person schooling).

• But they see "two-sided" risks. On the downside, labor shortages "could become increasingly binding as the pool of 'unemployed' workers is rehired while workers returning to the labor force are limited."
• Among upside risks, this report "covers the period from mid-July to mid-August and might capture some delayed return to work in states where expanded unemployment benefits ended by mid-July."
• Citi sees their central outcome as "enough to keep a September tapering announcement by the Fed on the table".