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Citi See Softer Payrolls But Quick Drop In U/E Rate

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
  • Citi see total non-farm payrolls up 450k in Nov (consensus 545k), “consistent with the recent trend and with two-sided risks”.
  • They see “roughly unchanged participation in November and a solid 0.4%MoM increase in average hourly earnings”, pushing the annual rate of AHE up to 5% Y/Y.
  • If labor shortages become more persistent over the next six months it could limit hiring more broadly, although this wouldn't be dovish if softer hiring is accompanied by a stagnant participation rate.
  • Expecting a largely unchanged participation rate over the coming months, Citi see “a quick drop in the unemployment rate over the next ~6 months to a level consistent with the Fed’s goal of maximum employment.”
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