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USDCAD TECHS

Consolidation Mode But Remains Bearish

AUDUSD TECHS

Fails To Hold Onto Thursday’s High

US

'Big Tech' Bill Goes To Senate

COMMODITIES

Oil Up For Fifth Week On Supply Disruption, Geopolitics

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  • Citi see total non-farm payrolls up 450k in Nov (consensus 545k), “consistent with the recent trend and with two-sided risks”.
  • They see “roughly unchanged participation in November and a solid 0.4%MoM increase in average hourly earnings”, pushing the annual rate of AHE up to 5% Y/Y.
  • If labor shortages become more persistent over the next six months it could limit hiring more broadly, although this wouldn't be dovish if softer hiring is accompanied by a stagnant participation rate.
  • Expecting a largely unchanged participation rate over the coming months, Citi see “a quick drop in the unemployment rate over the next ~6 months to a level consistent with the Fed’s goal of maximum employment.”