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CNB Minutes Show Frait & Holub Backed 25bp Cut, Inflation Marginally Tops Expectations

CZECHIA
  • The minutes of the CNB's most recent monetary policy meeting showed that Jan Frait and Tomas Holub dissented to vote in favour of a 25bp rate cut. The Bank Board assessed that the "threat of inflation expectations becoming unanchored was the main upside risk to inflation". Meanwhile, both Frait and Holub said that they no longer saw the current state of public finances as a source of immediate risks. In Frair's view, the "action taken by central banks to date was proving effective", while Holub warned that if inflation approached +2% Y/Y already in January, the subsequent easing cycle would have to be implemented in larger increments.
  • Czechia's headline inflation accelerated to +8.5% Y/Y in October from +6.9% prior in a widely expected rebound caused the implementation of the energy savings tariff a year ago. The effect is believed to be temporary, with price growth seen moderating at pace into the new year. Still, inflation exceeded the consensus call (+8.4%) and the CNB's forecast (+8.3%). The central bank will release detailed data along with commentary at 12:00GMT/13:00CET.
  • Chamber of Deputies Speaker Marketa Pekarova Adamova is expected to be re-elected as leader of the TOP09 party this weekend. The party has been polling around the 5% electoral threshold in the recent months.
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