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CNY Fixing Still Stronger Than Expected, But More Modest Compared To Last Week

CNH

The CNY fix printed at 6.8928, versus a Bloomberg consensus of 6.9124.

  • Today's outcome is again on the firm side relative to expectations (the 14th day in a row). In USD/CNY terms it's a -196pip surprise.
  • Still, this is down from the second half of last week, which averaged -412pips (Wed-Fri) in terms of the fixing surprise.
  • Given USD/CNH has moved away from a test of the 7.00 level, in the near term at least, today's result is perhaps not surprising.
  • CNH is underperforming the softer USD trend elsewhere today. USD/CNH is back above 6.9200 (last 6.9230), unable to break down through 6.9100 earlier.
  • Domestic Covid headwinds (including a fresh lockdown near Beijing) and concerns around holiday spending momentum are not helping sentiment at the margin.
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