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COLOMBIA: August Exports, September CPI Due

COLOMBIA
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market News
  • Export data for August will be released at 1600BST(1100ET}, with analysts expecting exports to have moderated to $4.03bn, from $4.62bn in July. Later today, after market close, CPI inflation is expected to have fallen to 5.84% y/y in September, from 6.12% the month before (0000BST/1900ET). At the same time, core CPI inflation is set to moderate further, with consensus for another dip to 6.54% y/y, from 6.78%. The data will be key for the next BanRep MPC meeting, scheduled for Oct 31, when the debate will be whether to continue cutting at the current 50bp pace or step up to 75bp.
  • Last week’s minutes showed that at the September MPC meeting, a cautious majority of the Board felt that a larger move could bring risks, given the uncertain fiscal outlook and fact that inflation is still high. Analysts remain split on October, but Scotiabank feels that the progress on inflation won’t be fast enough for BanRep to cut by 75bp just yet.
    • Aug. Exports FOB, est. $4.03b, prior $4.62b
    • Sept. CPI YoY, est. 5.84%, prior 6.12%
    • Sept. CPI MoM est. 0.27%, prior 0.00%
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  • Export data for August will be released at 1600BST(1100ET}, with analysts expecting exports to have moderated to $4.03bn, from $4.62bn in July. Later today, after market close, CPI inflation is expected to have fallen to 5.84% y/y in September, from 6.12% the month before (0000BST/1900ET). At the same time, core CPI inflation is set to moderate further, with consensus for another dip to 6.54% y/y, from 6.78%. The data will be key for the next BanRep MPC meeting, scheduled for Oct 31, when the debate will be whether to continue cutting at the current 50bp pace or step up to 75bp.
  • Last week’s minutes showed that at the September MPC meeting, a cautious majority of the Board felt that a larger move could bring risks, given the uncertain fiscal outlook and fact that inflation is still high. Analysts remain split on October, but Scotiabank feels that the progress on inflation won’t be fast enough for BanRep to cut by 75bp just yet.
    • Aug. Exports FOB, est. $4.03b, prior $4.62b
    • Sept. CPI YoY, est. 5.84%, prior 6.12%
    • Sept. CPI MoM est. 0.27%, prior 0.00%