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COLOMBIA: August IP, Retail Sales, September Consumer Confidence Due

COLOMBIA
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market News
  • Local markets reopen after a national holiday yesterday, with the sharp decline in oil prices likely to weigh on the Colombian peso at the open. BBVA says that with an underlying USD bias, and oscillating oil prices as well as relatively weak economic performance in the country, they still like long USDCOP positions and are buyers on dips in a climbing range of between 4120 and 4260.
  • On-going fiscal risks may also weigh on the currency, as uncertainty over the 2025 budget continues to linger. Posting on X, President Petro has reiterated that the budget situation will not be paid for by the poor with cuts in social spending, but by the wealthiest sectors of the country, from whom all forms of subsidies will be cut. In the absence of an agreement with Congress, the government still looks set to pass next year’s budget by decree.
  • On the data front today, activity data for August will be published at 1600BST(1100ET), including industrial production and retail sales. September consumer confidence figures are also due later. Separately, Ecopetrol’s offer to repurchase existing bonds maturing in 2026 will expire at 2200BST(1700ET) today.
    • Aug. Retail Sales YoY, est. 2.3%, prior 1.6%
    • Aug. Industrial Production YoY, est. -1.8%, prior 0.7%
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  • Local markets reopen after a national holiday yesterday, with the sharp decline in oil prices likely to weigh on the Colombian peso at the open. BBVA says that with an underlying USD bias, and oscillating oil prices as well as relatively weak economic performance in the country, they still like long USDCOP positions and are buyers on dips in a climbing range of between 4120 and 4260.
  • On-going fiscal risks may also weigh on the currency, as uncertainty over the 2025 budget continues to linger. Posting on X, President Petro has reiterated that the budget situation will not be paid for by the poor with cuts in social spending, but by the wealthiest sectors of the country, from whom all forms of subsidies will be cut. In the absence of an agreement with Congress, the government still looks set to pass next year’s budget by decree.
  • On the data front today, activity data for August will be published at 1600BST(1100ET), including industrial production and retail sales. September consumer confidence figures are also due later. Separately, Ecopetrol’s offer to repurchase existing bonds maturing in 2026 will expire at 2200BST(1700ET) today.
    • Aug. Retail Sales YoY, est. 2.3%, prior 1.6%
    • Aug. Industrial Production YoY, est. -1.8%, prior 0.7%