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COLOMBIA: CPI Inflation Falls More Than Expected In October

COLOMBIA
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  • No data are due today, with the market closed for a national holiday. Late on Friday, CPI inflation came in below expectations in October, with headline prices falling by 0.13% m/m, bringing the annual rate down by 40bp to 5.41% y/y. Consensus was for headline inflation to tick down to 5.71%. At the same time, core prices were unchanged on the month, bringing annual inflation down to 6.29% y/y, from 6.55%, below the 6.45% consensus.
  • Goldman Sachs noted that even though the downside surprise was mostly driven by noncore components, core pressures were relatively moderate. However, the policy-sensitive core services measure rose 0.22% m/m, mostly owing to the still highly inertial rent component. Potential FX pressures from the large 12% depreciation over the last six months remain contained for now, but could materialise in the future. At this juncture, GS maintains a base case of another 50bp cut in December, but the probability of a larger 75bp move has likely increased.
  • In other news, Ecopetrol board members Juan José Echavarría and Luis Alberto Zuleta were set to leave their positions effective Nov 9, the company said in a filing on Friday.
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  • No data are due today, with the market closed for a national holiday. Late on Friday, CPI inflation came in below expectations in October, with headline prices falling by 0.13% m/m, bringing the annual rate down by 40bp to 5.41% y/y. Consensus was for headline inflation to tick down to 5.71%. At the same time, core prices were unchanged on the month, bringing annual inflation down to 6.29% y/y, from 6.55%, below the 6.45% consensus.
  • Goldman Sachs noted that even though the downside surprise was mostly driven by noncore components, core pressures were relatively moderate. However, the policy-sensitive core services measure rose 0.22% m/m, mostly owing to the still highly inertial rent component. Potential FX pressures from the large 12% depreciation over the last six months remain contained for now, but could materialise in the future. At this juncture, GS maintains a base case of another 50bp cut in December, but the probability of a larger 75bp move has likely increased.
  • In other news, Ecopetrol board members Juan José Echavarría and Luis Alberto Zuleta were set to leave their positions effective Nov 9, the company said in a filing on Friday.