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Completed Construction Work Misses Forecasts, ANZ Unveil Hawkish Revision To RBNZ Call

NZD

The interplay between risk aversion and higher oil prices, both stemming from the ongoing Russia crisis, provided the main driver. NZD/USD round tripped from $0.6926, its highest point since Nov 24, finishing the day slightly below neutral levels.

  • NZD/USD changes hands at $0.6830, down 8 pips on the day. Bears need losses past Feb 28 low of $0.6656 before targeting Feb 24 low of $0.6631. Bulls eye yesterday's high/200-DMA at $0.6926/30 for initial resistance, a break here would clear the way to the $0.7000 mark.
  • ANZ have revised their RBNZ call and now expect back-to-back 50bp OCR hikes in both April and May, with the policy rate seen reaching a peak of 3.5% in April 2023 (prev. 3.0%). The revised forecast is more aggressive than market expectations, with the OIS strip pricing a virtual coin toss between a 25bp and 50bp rate hike in April.
  • New Zealand's construction work put in place grew 8.9% Q/Q in the final quarter of last year, missing the consensus forecast of +10.0%. The latest print came on the heels of a revised 8.4% contraction registered in Q3.
  • M'fing Activity (Wednesday), card spending (Thursday) & Business M'fing PMI (Friday) take focus from here.
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