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Conf. Board LEI Back To Signaling Near-Term Recession

US DATA
  • Released earlier today, the Conference Board’s leading index provided another weaker than expected released, falling -0.8% (cons -0.7%) in September after -0.7%, for its largest monthly decline since October.
  • From the press release: “Among the leading indicators, deteriorating consumers’ expectations for business conditions, lower ISM® Index of New Orders, falling equities, and tighter credit conditions drove the index’s most recent decline.”
  • “After a pause in September, the LEI resumed signaling recession in the near term. The Conference Board expects elevated inflation, high interest rates, and contracting consumer spending—due to depleting pandemic saving and mandatory student loan repayments—to tip the US economy into a very short recession. We forecast that real GDP will expand by just 0.8 percent in 2024.”

Source: Conference Board

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