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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
CZECHIA
The CZSO will publish June CPI data tomorrow morning (0800BST/0900CEST). Consensus expects headline inflation to ease to +9.7% Y/Y in June from +11.1% in May, according to a Bloomberg poll of economists. M/M price growth is expected to have stayed at +0.3% M/M in June.
- The CNB will release its comments on inflation data on its website later in the day (12:00BST/13:00CEST). The central bank will provide data on core and monetary policy-relevant inflation, which will be accompanied by a brief discussion of how inflation developed compared with the official forecasts. The CNB's Spring Forecast assumed that inflation would print at +10.1% Y/Y in June, but actual inflation outturns undershot CNB expectations in both April and May.
- However, Goldman Sachs agree with CNB staff projection and expect inflation to decline to +10.1% Y/Y from +11.1%. They see a "strong possibility of a return to single digits, which would be an important psychological milestone." In their view, the decline in June will still be driven mostly by base effects in energy and food prices. Going forward, they do not expect the pace of disinflation to warrant the rate cuts priced in by the market in the near term.
- ING expect inflation to be in single digits for the first time since January 2022, with annual price growth seen at +9.6%. They expect "stable food prices and modest growth in fuel prices after the massive drop in the previous month," alongside "small increases in housing and the rest of the consumer basket with no significant driver this time around."
- Komercni Banka see inflation at +9.7% Y/Y in June on the back of base effects, with fuel prices rising slightly on a M/M basis after a sharp decline in May. They also expect a slight M/M increase in food prices. They see core inflation falling to +7.5% Y/Y from +8.6% prior, following a surprisingly strong decline in the recent months.
Fig. 1: Czechia CPI Y/Y (%) vs. BBG Consensus vs. CNB Spring Forecast
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg/CNB
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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