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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
UK
The latest Westminster general election opinion poll from YouGov shows Prime Minister Boris Johnson's centre-right Conservatives increasing its lead over the main opposition centre-left Labour Party to 10%, its widest polling lead since late August.
- Latest Westminster voting intention: Con: 41% (+2), Lab: 31% (n/c), Lib Dem: 9% (n/c), Green: 8% (-1), SNP: 4% (-2), Reform UK: 4% (n/c). Fieldwork 12-13 Oct. Chgs w/5-6 Oct. 1,659 respondents.
- Which of the following do you think would make the best Prime Minister? Boris Johnson (Con) - 31% (n/c), Keir Starmer - 25% (-1), Not Sure - 41% (+2). Fieldwork 12-13 Oct. Changes from 15-16 Sept. 1,659 respondents.
- There remains long-running speculation in the media about PM Johnson calling a snap general election in 2022, but in our view this remains largely unlikely. Chancellor Rishi Sunak is expected to deliver the Budget on 27 October and there is a widespread public expectation according to polls that it will contain some notable tax hikes to pay down the gov'ts pandemic largesse.
- With a cost of living crisis looming amid rising taxes, food and energy bills, and petrol prices combined with the uncertainty of the COVID-19 situation over the coming winter holding a general election on the back of that would be a major risk for a gov't with a working majority of 81 seats.
Chart 1. Betting Market, Implied Probability of Year of Next General Election, %
Source: Smarkets
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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