Conservatives Retain Polling Lead But Centre-Left Bloc Holds Majority

Latest opinion polling from Norway ahead of the 13 September general election shows Prime Minister Erna Solberg's centre-right Conservative Party retaining a lead over the main opposition centre-left Labour Party. However, the left-wing 'red bloc' of parties continue to hold an overall majority of public support according to opinion polls meaning Solberg could find herself short of a majority despite leading the largest party (a scenario that took place after the 2017 election, with Labour as the largest party but the Conservatives retaining power).

• Kantar poll: Conservatives (blue bloc): 26% (+1), Centre Party (red bloc): 19% (-1), Labour (red): 18% (-2), Socialist Left Party (red): 9% (+3), Progress Party (blue): 7% (-1), Red Party (red): 7% (+2), Greens (no bloc): 4% (-1), Christian Democrats (blue): 3%, Liberal Party (blue): 3% (-1). +/- vs. 25-29 January 2021. Fieldwork: 22-26 February 2021. Sample size: 981. Red bloc: 53% (+2), Blue bloc: 39% (-1), No bloc: 4% (-1).
• The formation of a gov't after the election could prove difficult. While the far-left Red Party are classed as part of the 'red bloc', the party has never served in gov't and indeed only entered the Storting in 2017 with a single seat. The more moderate centre-left parties may not be able to work with the Reds after the election.