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Constitutional Court Postponed Ruling on Primacy of EU Law (again)

POLAND
  • Poland's constitutional court reopened yesterday but then recessed its proceedings in a case over whether Polish or European Union law has primacy in the country according to Bloomberg. Poland's top court adjourned until Sept. 22, pushing back (again) a verdict which could escalate a row with the bloc over democratic values.
  • Yesterday, economic data showed that inflationary pressures continued to surprise positively in August, with CPI inflation coming in higher than expected at 5.4% YoY (vs. 5.1% exp.), up from 5% the previous month.
  • Even though the majority of the NBP members is still aiming to keep interest rates low as the economic uncertainty remains elevated, traders have been speculating that the NBP board will pivot towards a gradual tightening.
  • NBP dove Gatnar continues to believe that the NBP should start a tightening cycle at the next meeting on Sept 8 with a 'small' 15bps hike following the positive inflation surprise yesterday. He told TV broadcaster Biznes24 that inflation is no longer purely supply-side, especially in services.
  • On the other hand, policymaker Jerzy Zyzynski sees the policy rate steady until the end of 2021 as the uncertainty over the pandemic remains elevated. In addition, he reiterated that Polish inflation is currently driven by supply factors (outside of control of policy makers).
  • Momentum on PLN has been firmed against major crosses yesterday following the CPI print, mostly driven by the rise in forward rates.
  • This morning, economic data showed that manufacturing PMI came in slightly lower than expected at 56 in August (vs. 56.7 exp.), down from 57.6 the previous month.
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