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CONSUMER CYCLICALS: GM (GM Baa2/BBB/BBB): 2Q24 Preview

CONSUMER CYCLICALS
  • GM reports 2Q24 results tomorrow.
  • 1Q24 results were well received, featuring a 24% adj. EBIT beat and 4% FY24 guidance upgrade.
  • FY Adj. EBIT consensus has moved up since, from $12.7bn to $13.9bn currently; that’s at the higher end of $12.5-14.5bn guidance.
  • GM spreads have outperformed Stellantis by ~13bp over the past 3 months, driven mainly by STLA underperforming the sector with tight starting valuations.
  • While the US OEMs have fared better than Europeans, the sector continues to face challenges including higher rates and extreme competition in China (34% of unit sales). Inventory has been building in the US which could lead to margin pressure.

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