October 11, 2024 10:47 GMT
CONSUMER CYCLICALS: Q3 Earnings: €/£ Consumer & Transport
CONSUMER CYCLICALS
final edits and we will leave it at that - all the best.
Most anticipated
- Walgreen Boots 15 Oct
- Carrefour (~late Oct) & Casino 31 Oct (for read-through to Auchan and ITM)
- VF 28 Oct
- Air-France 7 Nov
- Burberry 14 Nov
Most concern on current levels
- Randstad 22 Oct
- Whirlpool 23 Oct
- Electrolux 25 Oct
- Lufthansa 29 Oct
- Adecco 5 Nov
- Air-France 7 Nov
May see value post-earnings on current levels
- Rentokil (high cash px lines) 17 Oct
- Finnair 29 Oct
- Pluxee 31 Oct
- bpost 8 Nov
- IDS ~mid Nov
Sector darlings (lowest beta)
- Tesco (grocers)
- IAG (airlines)
- Haleon (consumer goods)
- Compass (services)
- LVMH (luxury)
- Danone (F&B)
- Phillip Morris (tobacco)
- AB Inbev (brewers)
- David Campari (spirits)
First to report (all in October)
- Airlines: Delta (US) 13th, Lufthansa & Finnair 29th
- Luxury: LVMH 15th
- Consumer goods; Fnac Darty 15th
- Staffing: Manpower 17th
- Spirits: Pernod Ricard 17th
- Lodging: IHG 22nd
- Tobacco; Phillip Morris 22nd
- Brewers: AB-InBev 31st
Key themes we are watching
- Airlines cost control and management of capacity towards maximising yields
- French grocery market competition (margins vs. market share and performance by convenience/super/hyper)
- Luxury brand performances vs. the market. Exposure to trading down/'aspirational' customers. Regional underperformers.
- Tobacco co's progress on expanding non-combustibles and reported headwinds from illicit sales by region.
- Staffing co's handling of AI; both the impact to own business and on net hiring demand.
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