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CONSUMER CYCLICALS: Volkswagen (VW A3/BBB+/A-): RV

CONSUMER CYCLICALS
  • VW Bank 4.375 05/28 (A3/BBB) is currently trading 6bp wide to RCI Banque 4.875 09/28 (Baa1/BBB-), a situation that has historically reversed quickly (chart).
  • Renault has performed better recently, with 1H24 results showing strong operating performance despite sector headwinds.
  • VW has been struggling with intense competition in China, cost pressure and EV capex for its complex product lineup.
  • A tighter spread between the 2 credits than before is justified. However, with no ratings pressure and liquidity still strong, we still see the possibility for VW Bank to trade tighter on average.

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