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Consumer Movers

CONSUMER STAPLES
  • ITM 29s resuming a drift wider, +5bps on mids now at Z+390/B+420/6.4%. It's a painful run since issuance (+90bps) but hard to see it getting support till it closes the gap with peer Auchan whose 5yr is on high-5% over bunds. When it does, given more stability of recent in ITM, it might be better risk to eye carry particularly after reporting periods (we see annual on website, have asked mgmt if it is more periodic internally)
  • €WBA26s -20bps/+0.5pts in a 100bp reversal from wides late last month. We'd still exercise caution but can see the attraction (front end, household name, $1.85b raised this month already etc.). It's also hard to ignore the new $29s - even for short-end investors. It's working out to par call in 4yrs but high-coupon and 5NC2 call structure leaves effective duration in mid-3 (vs. €26s at 2). It's giving 7.6% vs. our 26s swapping over at 6.4%; that's a 2s4s curve at 120bps and was at +160bps on issuance. For reference treasury 2s4s are -25bps there and Auchan is +130 on spread to benchmark. We don't have a firm enough view on WBA fundamentals to take a firm view on 29s.
  • Couche-Tard with 31s leading -4bps. A small reversal of yesterday's +15bp move out. We see some value there.
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