October 10, 2024 08:23 GMT
CONSUMER STAPLES: Alimentation Couche-Tard (Baa1/BBB+) 7-11 earnings
CONSUMER STAPLES
7-11 parent has reported revenue growth of +9% for 6m to August but abysmal performance further down; operating profit at ¥187b (-22.4%) on a 3.1% margin (-130bps) driven by overseas 7-11 stores EBIT down -35%. Reminder this is the same co that turned down Couche-Tard's offer on grounds it didn't reflect value of business including its apparent growth strategy. As rumoured its splitting out its non-core supermarket and speciality stores to 'unlock shareholder value'.
- FY guidance (to end of Feb 25) sees revenue guidance boosted by +6% to leave it +4%yoy. EBIT has been cut by -26% and leaves it down a similar 25%yoy. It leaves a implied margin of 3.4% down 140bps (!) original guidance for 4.8% and down 130bps from last year's 4.7%.
- Cuts are being driven by overseas 7-11 stores (3/4 of group revenues); it is expected to run a 2.3% margin now vs. last year 3.5% (-120bps). ATD for reference runs a mid-5% EBIT margin.
- On drivers; across the group it still has declining merchandise same store sales (-4.1% in Q1, -2.4% in Q2) which it blames on inflationary pressures and cigarette declines. Fuel volumes also declining (Q1 -5.2%, Q2 -1.2%) which it says is better than industry.
- Dividend hasn't been bumped significantly - ¥20/share this half and annual expected to be ¥40 (1.7% yield).
The important for ATDBCN bondholders;
- Its "optimising" group structure by splitting out the convivence store operations from speciality and supermarket stores - it will IPO the latter separately and have "strategic partners" come in and will account for it under equity method (i.e. will no longer be consolidated under group results and indicative of smaller stake/control it will have over it).
- On the remaining convivence stores (what ATD will be interested in) it has the normal filler words; "promote enhancement of
corporate / shareholder value through global growth" and "strategic initiatives to unlock potential value". - It's dangling equity pay-outs as the result of the effective spin-off.
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