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Consumer Weekly

CONSUMER STAPLES

We've been hoping for PVH like NICs to be around the corner after 3 straight weeks of slow supply onto tight (bar JABHOL) secondary curves. Unfortunately Tuesday did not deliver on that, but we did think Kellanova's 10Y (Baa2/NR/BBB) screened value on IPT - strong cover & tightening left a 5bp NIC. Coca-Cola was testing insurers thirst for long-end with its 20Y - no signs of weakness, pricing 2bps through our FV. Secondary saw tad more vol than last week, but at the headline level both staples & cyclicals end unch. Key pieces linked below;


  • Tesco the next Solvay? We don't think so but as the Essity situation has shown longs can be stubborn & facts are open to debate - caution for shorts.
  • Tapestry 25s out of focus yet we see it as the best risk-reward. Caution on now high cash price 27/31s & on hedging choices.
  • Mobico still a tough IG name to like. VFC and/or Elo/Auchan may see a turnaround before it does. On wait & see for all three, VFC next up with 4Q results on the 22nd.
  • Metro AG: 29s among best performing new issues but we flag caution ahead of a rough year. Could see refi early next year - it has a poor track record in primary (issues wide).
  • PVH; new 29s screening value. We are waiting for the rough 1Q earnings to roll through later this month.
  • Booking.com; no longer screening the reverse yankee discountit once did.

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