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​COP Under Significant Pressure Ahead Of Friday’s Fiscal Framework Presentation

COLOMBIA
  • The Colombian peso remains under substantial pressure today, retreating a further 3% against the dollar, taking total losses this week to over 5%. USDCOP has now risen through the 4100 level to 4145 in recent trade, the highest level since Nov 17. Although carry remains attractive, the recent global unwinding of carry trades has weighed on the peso, as have softer oil prices. BBVA believe that the unwinding of long COP positions could easily take USDCOP to 4200.
  • Meanwhile, fiscal concerns remain following the approval by congressional economic committees to increase the debt ceiling by $17.6 billion. Moody’s sovereign analysts also spoke about the fiscal outlook this week, saying that the fiscal deficit is likely to exceed the government’s 5.3% of GDP estimate this year, lifting the debt to GDP ratio above 55%. Focus now turns to tomorrow’s medium-term fiscal framework presentation, which will provide insight into the government's fiscal outlook at a time of ongoing pressure on the fiscal accounts.
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