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Copom Minutes Awaited Following Split Decision

BRAZIL
  • At the August 02 meeting, the BCB decided to cut the Selic rate by 50bps to 13.25%, in a split decision. The committee judged that recent improvements to the inflation scenario and outlook has provided the confidence to commence “a gradual cycle of monetary policy easing”. Our full review of the meeting can be found here.
  • Today, the central bank will release the minutes of the August meeting where analysts will await further information on the divergent views on the committee that prompted a 5-4 vote split. Itaú pointed out that this was no ordinary split, as the majority of the voters with orthodox Economics academic background within the board preferred a more cautious approach.
  • Goldman Sachs highlighted they will be looking for the arguments of the dissenting directors and why the majority saw it appropriate to deviate from the “prudent” and “parsimonious” signal provided in previous meetings. GS will also be looking for views on the output gap and the labour market dynamics and to what extent a tight labour market can render inflation (services in particular) more inertial. Separately, Western Asset Management stated they will be expecting to learn more about why "fiscal risk" was removed from the statement.
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