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BOND SUMMARY: Core bonds have been under some pressure this morning, although
moves have largely been limited to partially retracing yesterday's moves on
hopes of a more optimistic tilt for US-China trade talks.
- Gilts are the underperformers this morning, helped further by core CPI coming
in a tenth higher than expected at 1.7% Y/Y. There has been little reaction to
yesterday's leaders debate with Johnson still the odds-on favourite. The third
round of voting will take place today with results expected around 18:00BST
ahead of two votes tomorrow to whittle the field down to the final 2 candidates.
- The main game in town is the FOMC decision tonight, however. As we noted in
our preview, the two magic words are "patient" and "insurance", the question is
whether the Fed are able to be dovish enough to satisfy markets.
- TY1 futures are down -0-5+ today at 127-10+ with 10y UST yields up 1.8bp at
2.078% and 2y yields up 2.1bp at 1.887%. Bund futures are down -0.52 today at
172.34 with 10y Bund yields up 2.4bp at -0.297% and Schatz yields up 1.5bp at
-0.755%. Gilt futures are down -0.52 today at 130.24 with 10y yields up 3.9bp at
0.844% and 2y yields up 2.6bp at 0.594%.