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Core Inflation Momentum Slowing On 3-Month Basis

FED

Fed officials have said they will disregard large rises in Y/Y inflation over the coming months, owing to base effects from the deflationary period at the beginning of the pandemic in March 2020.

  • That being said, core inflation momentum is clearly slowing on a quarterly basis, which is a more apt basis of comparison than Y/Y in the months ahead (and less volatile than M/M readings).
  • Per BMO analysts, "policymakers are sure to emphasize the 3-mo annualized rate over the yearly pace. In fact, this was one of the clear takeaways from Powell's recent comments".
  • Today's CPI reading means that rate has slowed to 0.7% in Feb, vs 1.0% in Jan and is the weakest reading since Jun 2020. See chart below.

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