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JAPAN DATA: Core Machine Orders Weaker Than Forecast

JAPAN DATA
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Other Japan data released showed core machine orders for Dec weaker than forecast. We fell 1.2% m/m, against a 0.5% forecast and 3.4% prior. In y/y terms we printed 4.3% (against a 7.5% forecast and 10.3% prior). 

  • We saw weakness for both manufacturing and non-manufacturing orders. Manufacturing was still positive y/y, albeit just.
  • The chart below overlays core machine orders against Japan Capex (ex software spend). The softer machine order read is hinting at a slightly weaker capex backdrop, but arguably we need to see a firmer downtrend in machine orders to be more confident in such a call.
  • Note we get Q4 capex data on March 4.  

Fig 1: Japan Core Machine Order & Capex (Ex Software) Y/Y

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Other Japan data released showed core machine orders for Dec weaker than forecast. We fell 1.2% m/m, against a 0.5% forecast and 3.4% prior. In y/y terms we printed 4.3% (against a 7.5% forecast and 10.3% prior). 

  • We saw weakness for both manufacturing and non-manufacturing orders. Manufacturing was still positive y/y, albeit just.
  • The chart below overlays core machine orders against Japan Capex (ex software spend). The softer machine order read is hinting at a slightly weaker capex backdrop, but arguably we need to see a firmer downtrend in machine orders to be more confident in such a call.
  • Note we get Q4 capex data on March 4.  

Fig 1: Japan Core Machine Order & Capex (Ex Software) Y/Y

Keep reading...Show less