Inflation eased more than expected in June with headline CPI at 2.7% y/y down from 3.3%, the lowest since September 2021. The decline was driven by lower oil and agricultural prices. Core inflation is higher and proving stickier, as is the case in many other countries. It moderated to 4.1% y/y from 4.3%, the lowest since May 2022. These outcomes are likely to keep the Bank of Korea on hold for now. The next meeting is July 13.

Headline inflation is now 3.7pp below its July 2022 peak while core is only 0.8pp below its January 2023 peak.
Services prices rose 3.3% y/y down from 3.7% the previous month, the lowest in over a year.
Petroleum product prices fell 4% m/m and agricultural -0.9% but public utilities rose 2.2%.

South Korea CPI y/y%

Source: MNI - Market News/Refinitiv

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Maxine Koster

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Core Moderation More Gradual Than Headline