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Core Y/Y Inflation Moderation Slows In July

CANADA DATA
  • Our initial focus in an earlier bullet was on latest sequential trends, which the BoC is more explicitly focused on, but it’s also worth checking in with Y/Y trends.
  • Headline CPI came in higher than expected in July at 3.27% Y/Y (cons 3.0%) as it increased strongly from 2.8% in June which had seen the first print back in the 1-3% target range since March 2001.
  • Higher mortgage costs increasing a record +31% Y/Y were the largest contribution as a byproduct of the BoC’s tightening, whilst ‘traditional’ core measures saw a pause in moderation after good progress in recent months: ex food & energy dipped from 3.5% to 3.4% Y/Y, whilst ex 8 most volatile and indirect taxes inched lower from 3.18% to 3.16% Y/Y.
  • As noted earlier, there was minimal progress in the BOC’s preferred median/trim average, with 3.65% Y/Y after 3.70% Y/Y in June and 3.75% Y/Y in May.

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