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Correction Or Reversal In The S&P 500?
A steep and impulsive bear cycle has dominated price action in the equity space. This has confirmed a bearish short-term trend condition. A look at longer-term charts highlight some important technical considerations.
S&P 500 Index (SPX)
- Looking at MA studies, the medium and long-term trend remains up. In the chart attached, the 200-day EMA - a long-term trend identifier - maintains a positive slope and for now at least, price continues to trade above this average.
- Furthermore, the 20- and 50-day EMAs are in a bull-mode set-up - 20 day EMA above the 50-day EMA. This relationship highlights the medium-term trend structure.
- The chart also highlights an important support - the Apr 19 low of 4953.56.
- A clear break of the 200-day EMA and support at 4956.56, would be regarded as an important bearish development.
- The last time price tested support at the 200-day EMA, was Oct-Nov 2023. This example illustrates an additional key technical feature - if price is unable to remain below the EMA once breached, a false break is likely to lead to a resumption of the uptrend.
- While support holds, there is a strong likelihood that the recent steep drop in price is part of a fast correction.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.