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Correction Or Reversal In The S&P 500?

EQUITY TECHS

A steep and impulsive bear cycle has dominated price action in the equity space. This has confirmed a bearish short-term trend condition. A look at longer-term charts highlight some important technical considerations.


S&P 500 Index (SPX)

  • Looking at MA studies, the medium and long-term trend remains up. In the chart attached, the 200-day EMA - a long-term trend identifier - maintains a positive slope and for now at least, price continues to trade above this average.
  • Furthermore, the 20- and 50-day EMAs are in a bull-mode set-up - 20 day EMA above the 50-day EMA. This relationship highlights the medium-term trend structure.
  • The chart also highlights an important support - the Apr 19 low of 4953.56.
  • A clear break of the 200-day EMA and support at 4956.56, would be regarded as an important bearish development.
  • The last time price tested support at the 200-day EMA, was Oct-Nov 2023. This example illustrates an additional key technical feature - if price is unable to remain below the EMA once breached, a false break is likely to lead to a resumption of the uptrend.
  • While support holds, there is a strong likelihood that the recent steep drop in price is part of a fast correction.

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