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CPI Higher Than Hoped For

US TSYS
  • After some initial volatility this morning's higher than hoped for CPI inflation data weighed on rates as projected rate cut pricing has receded - CPI data unlikely to provide the FOMC confidence of inflation returning to 2% in the near term.
  • CPI MoM (0.4% vs. 0.4% est), YoY (3.2% vs. 3.1% est); CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM (0.4% vs. 0.3% est) YoY (3.8% vs. 3.7% est). Meanwhile, Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY (1.1% vs. prior 1.3% (rev), Weekly Earnings YoY (0.5% vs. prior 0.1% (rev).
  • Estimated dispersion across 57 items over the entire CPI basket saw relatively limited moderation in February considering the sharp increase in the breadth of inflationary pressure back in January. As such it lends support to that Jan jump for figures that can be noisy from month-to-month.
  • Treasury futures extended lows (TYM4 111-03) after the $39B 10Y re-open sale (91282CJZ5) tailed 1.1bp: 4.166% high yield vs. 4.155% WI; 2.51x bid-to-cover vs. 2.56x prior. Indirect take-up recedes to 64.29% vs. 70.97% prior; direct bidder take-up rebounds to 18.65% from 16.05% prior; primary dealer take-up rebounds to 17.06% vs. 12.98%.
  • Look ahead: data limited to Mortgage Applications and a Treasury bond sale re-open, the main focus is on Thursday's Retail Sales and PPI data.
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