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CPI Inflation Expected To Resume Downward Trend Ahead

COLOMBIA
  • CPI inflation came in close to expectations in June, with headline prices rising by 0.32% m/m (vs. +0.30% expected), lifting the annual rate of inflation by 2bp to 7.18% y/y. Core (ex-food) prices rose by 0.33% m/m (vs. +0.35% expected), bringing the annual rate there down to 7.64% y/y, from 7.83%.
  • Analysts note that m/m inflation has slowed, but remains high by historical standards. Going forward, Goldman Sachs expects inflation to resume its slow downwards trend in July, but they maintain their above-consensus year-end forecast of 5.8%. Their base case is still for another 50bp BanRep cut later this month. JP Morgan also expects inflation to resume a downward trend ahead, enabling BanRep to continue easing in a gradual manner. JPM see year-end inflation at 5.4% y/y.
  • The Colombian peso rallied 0.96% to 4048 against the dollar, ahead of the data, consolidating further after the recent sell-off. BBVA expects USDCOP to trade within the 3980-4180 range for now, given the cautious BanRep rhetoric and softer US data.
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