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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
CHF
- The CPI-inspired rebound in CHF may be providing only a temporary pause of the broader weakening trend which has primarily been driven by the policy divergence of the SNB to other major central banks. While a number of notable Swiss Franc supports have been respected for now, their technical significance will likely keep them firmly in focus going forward.
- We noted that this morning's Swiss CPI print opens upside risk to the current SNB forecast for Q2 2024 of 1.4%, as rental price inflation might accelerate in the coming months, however the feedthrough to SNB policy is less clear, evident in reversal of the initial move across SNB-dated OIS (now shows near 65% odds of a 25bps cut in June).
- Overall, the USD index is consolidating its post-Fed move lower as the markets high hawkish bar was not met on Wednesday. A temporary unwind of short-term greenback optimism is likely having an impact here, contributing to the extension lower for USDCHF today.
- USDCHF hit fresh cycle highs just short of notable resistance at 0.9244, the October 2023 high. Price action today briefly extended the pullback to roughly 125 pips, as the pair potentially lines up a test of next support at 0.9088.
- In similar vein for EURCHF, multiple highs just below 0.9850 have capped the topside so far and will remain the short-term point of interest. Today’s lows of 0.9757 have closely matched initial support at the 20-day EMA.
- For AUDCHF, the psychological 0.6000 mark appears to be receiving notable attention, a break of which would likely signal scope for a move towards the June 2023 highs at 0.6176. Exponential moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position (shown below).
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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