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  • Headline CPI is seen slowing four tenths to 3.0% Y/Y June in the last month of large favourable oil-related base effects. Analysts are tightly packed between 2.9-3.1%.
  • The average of the BoC’s preferred median and trim measures are seen slowing two tenths to 3.65% Y/Y for the softest since Dec’21 but remember that it’s the monthly data and the three-month run rate that the BoC has been putting most weight on with decision statements regularly noting stickiness in the 3.5-4% range.
  • May saw decent downward progress for these components, printing an average 0.22% M/M, although the three-month was still 3.7% annualized. The separate core of ex food and energy backed this trend up, with 0.20% M/M after three months at 0.34% M/M but still see 3.6% annualized.
  • Analyst Y/Y estimates roughly imply a M/M in a similar region (depending in part on revisions), which would push the three-month to 3.3-3.4% annualized for the first time since Oct’22 and before that Nov’21.
  • Note that the ex food & energy measure could however see some renewed upward momentum on the month. CIBC, at the bottom end of headline consensus, look for 0.3% M/M SA, whilst Scotia, at the top end, look for 0.4% M/M SA.
  • This increase in the more traditional core will include higher mortgage costs but if repeated in the median/trim measures it would likely see a push higher in the circa two-thirds of a hike priced to year-end, albeit with still almost two months until the next BoC decision.
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