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CPI Preview (Tue, Mar 19)

CANADA
  • Canadian CPI for February is released at 0830ET tomorrow.
  • Bloomberg consensus sees headline CPI rising two tenths to 3.1% Y/Y in February. There is broad consensus for such a move, within in a range of 2.9-3.1% but with S&P an outlier at 2.5.
  • The median and trim average meanwhile is seen holding at 3.35% Y/Y, at what was the lowest print since late 2021.
  • TD agree on headline but see the core measures firm a tenth to 3.45% on average, despite 3-mth rates holding unchanged at 3.2% annualized.
  • Gov. Macklem was keen to point out in March commentary that the Bank needs to see a further easing in median and trim figures which as he noted were running at 3.3/3.4% Y/Y and a similar rate in three-month terms in Jan.
  • The Bank has recently explicitly been putting more weight on a range of underlying inflation measures but still formally refers the median and trim measures.
  • When asked about this by MNI in the Q&A, Macklem said “We are comfortable with our preferred measures of core inflation. We’ve been using this term underlying inflation because it reflects what we’re seeing in a whole range of indicators rather than people getting fixated on one number. Yes, our preferred measures are important, but we also look at alternate measures (CPIxFE, CPIX) and the whole distribution of price changes where still ~45% of the basket is rising above 3%, roughly double what is normal”.
  • On these other measures, CIBC look for CPIxFE to rise 0.3% M/M SA. We calculate that rounded figure as seeing the 3-mth rate cool further to just 2.3% annualized after moderating sharply in Jan.
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