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Credicorp Raise Year-End Interest Rate Forecast To 5.25%

CHILE
  • Bloomberg report that Credicorp has revised its year end policy rate forecast up by 25bp to 5.25%, following today’s CPI inflation data. Analysts there continue to see a 25bp cut at the next monetary policy meeting on June 18.
  • Credicorp note that the 0.3% m/m increase in the CPI in May came from higher prices for transport, clothing and recreation/restaurants. They believe that the BCCh’s base case remains valid, with inflation converging around 3.7% y/y in Q2. However, core inflation is expected to be slightly higher due to stick services inflation. They have revised up their year-end CPI inflation estimate to 4.0%, from 3.6%.
  • Prospects for a slightly slower easing cycle haven’t helped CLP today, however, as the spike in US yields and associated greenback strength following the stronger-than-expected US NFP data have weighed on the peso, currently down 1.3% against the dollar. For USDCLP, the next important resistance is seen at 927.16, the 50-day EMA.
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